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FCX to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Freeport is slated to report Q3 results on Oct. 27, with earnings estimated at 78 cents per share.
  • Favorable copper prices are likely to support FCX's results despite lower year-over-year volumes.
  • Grasberg disruptions and higher unit costs pose challenges, with copper sales expected to fall 23%.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on Oct. 27.

The mining giant beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 32.6% on average. While higher unit costs and weaker year-over-year volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance, it is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices.

FCX’s shares have rallied 56.1% in a year, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 38.7% rise.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for FCX Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Freeport this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here. 

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is +0.12%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at 78 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $7,086.6 million, calling for an increase of 1.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for FCX Stock

Freeport’s third-quarter results are expected to reflect favorable copper prices. FCX expects its third-quarter average realized copper price to exceed $6.50 per pound. 

Copper prices continue to show strength driven by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, artificial intelligence data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand aided the red metal. Supply risks stem from operational issues in top producer Chile, along with export bans on copper concentrates from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.9 per pound last month on tariff-related uncertainties and supply tightness. Imports to the United States have surged ahead of a potential tariff announcement by the Trump administration. Copper prices are currently hovering around $6.4 per pound. 
    
FCX’s results are likely to have been unfavorably impacted by lower year-over-year sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. The company expects third-quarter copper sales to be roughly 750 million pounds, while gold sales are projected at around 100,000 ounces, reflecting 23% and 70% year-over-year declines, respectively.  Lower year-over-year sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line.

FCX recently said that its U.S. operations experienced lower-than-planned operating rates during the third quarter due to increased localized flooding, power outages and strong winds. In Indonesia, abnormally dry weather generally supported mining activity but created challenges in the milling process. In the third quarter, Grasberg mill throughput averaged approximately 140,000 metric tons of ore per day, or about 67% of normalized rates before the September 2025 incident. The company continues to expect Grasberg to reach 80% capacity by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by year-end 2027. 

Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the September quarter. FCX expects unit net cash costs to be about 5% above its July 2026 estimate of $2 per pound, mainly due to lower by-product credits. The projected third-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 44% year-over-year increase.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. price-eps-surprise | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Avient Corporation (AVNT - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AVNT’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 81 cents.

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 3, has an Earnings ESP of +1.35%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DD’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.86. DD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

Huntsman Corporation (HUN - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov. 2, has an Earnings ESP of +49.86% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for HUN’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 7 cents.

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